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Monday, March 16, 2026

US-Venezuela Oil Pact Expands Offsetting Iran War Supply Shock


 As US-Israeli strikes on Iran since late February 2026 disrupt crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz and damage export hubs like Kharg Island, the Trump administration is rapidly expanding energy agreements with Venezuela to restore global supply balance.


Following the January 3 capture of Nicolás Maduro and the installation of interim leader Delcy Rodríguez, the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued and updated General Licenses 46 through 50 (latest March 13 expansions). These authorize American and international majors—including Chevron, BP, Shell, Eni, and Repsol—to invest in exploration, provide diluents and equipment, generate electricity, and freely export Venezuelan-origin crude and petrochemicals.

Venezuelan production, recently near 1 million barrels per day, is accelerating with targeted US investment and technology. Early exports have surged, with direct shipments to US Gulf Coast refiners like Phillips 66 and Citgo, while trading houses handle broader marketing. Analysts project 30-40% output growth within 2026, adding hundreds of thousands of barrels daily.

This strategic pivot—explicitly framed by Energy Secretary Chris Wright as a counter to Iranian disruptions—delivers immediate relief to price volatility and supports US energy security without relying on the volatile Middle East chokepoint. While full recovery requires billions more in investment, the new pacts are already stabilizing markets.