The Federal Reserve released a compelling 63-page report. It included very positive numbers for President Donald Trump in the 2018 year. GDP grew, wages increased, and consumer spending increased, while unemployment stayed stagnant at around 4%, and inflation is estimated to be 1.9%. The report also shows that Business investment did grow in 2018 but in the second half of 2018, business investment did slowdown. Housing market activity noticed a considerable fall due to mortgage rate increases, higher interest rates, and increased labor costs. Although unemployment is stagnant, black and Hispanic/Latino unemployment ticked up. The black population has almost 7% unemployment, and Hispanic/Latino unemployment is roughly 5%.
Global outlook however has a different tune, the market as a whole has become more cautious as banks and individuals in general are more reluctant when investing in new projects, or expansions. This is due to a huge decrease in auto sales in the Chinese market, the BREXIT dilemma, the European Debt Crisis, along with further instability in Venezuela, and many regions in the Middle East. Foreign economic growth fell significantly from 2017's growth. The Current US Debt is $22 Trillion with a federal deficit of -$.875 Trillion. The Federal Reserve expects a real GDP growth rate of 2.3 percent, slower than their expected 3.0 pace for 2018. They also expect a 1.9% inflation rate for 2019.
Overall their outlook is very favorable for Donald Trump, the Trump Shutdown had a very negative effect for the first quarter and possibly the first half of 2019. The stock market is performing well as of late and has rebounded significantly. The Federal Reserve remains cautious about increasing interest rates further after increasing them in December, but recent lawsuits against Donald Trump have made them reluctant about the move.
